„I believe we will have zero economic growth this year. The economy will bounce back to zero from a decline of 7%, now that the U.S. economy has recovered and so have the other engines of the global economy (…) and this can be observed in the exports sector,” said Lucian Croitoru, adviser to central bank governor Mugur Isarescu.
Speaking at an economic seminar, Croitoru said the eastern European country will recover „modestly” starting with the second half of 2010.
However, Romania can’t come out of the crisis independently of the global markets and pressuring the authorities for a speedier recovery would only lead to „charity measures,” Croitoru said.
„Those who put pressure on the government to take measures aimed at the economic re-launch only put pressure on the current account, because the government can’t do anything (about it),” he added.
„We depend structurally upon the global context,” he said.
Croitoru said foreign direct investment in Romania is likely to exceed EUR6 billion in 2010, a slight improvement from around EUR5 billion recorded a year earlier.
„Romania is at a crossroads: either capital inflows start to grow, or we will experience capital outflows due to a worsening situation in Greece and a possible similar situation on Spain,” Croitoru said.
Romania’s government aims for a 1.3% economic growth this year.